Decision calculator

Heat pump or gas furnace?

Compare the cash cost of a ducted air-source heat pump with a natural gas furnace. The answer changes with your utility rates, heating load, equipment efficiency, incentives, and whether the furnace option also needs air-conditioning work.

This is a cost comparison, not a universal answer.

Comfort, cold-weather capacity, electrical service, ductwork, backup heat, noise, and contractor quality can matter as much as the math.

Step 1

Quick comparison

Use the quotes and utility numbers you can verify. The defaults are examples, not national averages.

Start here

Heat pump installed quote Total installed price before rebates or incentives.

Gas furnace installed quote Total installed furnace price. Add required AC work below if needed.

Annual gas used for space heating Therms used by the current furnace for heating, not water heating or cooking.

therms

Electricity price Use your all-in marginal electricity price if possible.

$/kWh

Natural gas price Use the variable gas cost per therm. Fixed monthly fees may not disappear.

$/therm

Compare over Ten years is a useful starting point for HVAC equipment.

years

Live result Updates automatically as you change the numbers

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Heat pump—

Gas furnace—

Heat pump total — —

Gas furnace total — —

Estimated difference —

Estimated crossover — When one option's lower annual cost offsets a higher upfront cost.

What changes the answer? Utility prices matter.

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Test the decision

Explore the assumptions that most often move the operating-cost result. Exact inputs above stay synchronized.

Heat pump seasonal COP2.8

Electricity price$0.16/kWh

Quick estimate assumptions

These efficiency and maintenance assumptions are editable below.

Current furnace: — Heat pump COP: — New furnace: —

Step 2 · optional

Advanced assumptions

Refine efficiency, incentives, required AC work, and annual maintenance.

Show details

The model first estimates your home's annual delivered heating load from current furnace use, then calculates how much gas or electricity each replacement system would need.

Efficiency

Current furnace AFUE Example: 80% means about 80% of fuel energy becomes useful heat over the season.

New gas furnace AFUE Use the rated AFUE for the furnace in your quote.

Heat pump seasonal COP COP is useful heat delivered divided by electricity used. Use a climate-appropriate seasonal estimate, not the best single test point.

Upfront + maintenance

Heat pump rebates / incentives Enter only incentives you have verified and expect to receive. The federal 25C home improvement credit ended for property placed in service after Dec. 31, 2025.

Furnace rebates / incentives Enter verified utility, state, local, or manufacturer incentives.

AC work required with furnace option A heat pump also provides cooling. Add the AC replacement or major AC work needed to make the furnace option comparable.

Heat pump annual maintenance Use your expected annual service and maintenance cost.

Furnace annual maintenance Use your expected annual service and maintenance cost.

Read the full guide →

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Visible assumptions

Quotes, rates, efficiency, incentives, and maintenance stay on the page.

Checkable math

One therm equals 100,000 Btu; one kWh equals 3,412 Btu. The model converts both options to the same delivered heating load.

No fake precision

Real heat-pump performance varies with outdoor temperature, sizing, controls, ductwork, and backup heat.